Their last two fights have made me resolutely believe it is a Canelo victory.
A late knockout or stoppage-if both fighters respect each other's punching power, the fight still can end in a stoppage or knockout in the later rounds or even beyond the 10th round. "We both have the power to win by knockout". While GGG has fought his whole 37-fights-37-wins professional career at 160lb, Canelo will have to gain nearly half a stone just to match Golovkin's weight.
Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs) presents a different skill set than Mayweather's. The Guinness world record holder boasts the highest knockout percentage in middleweight history, now at 89.9%. For a brutal example see GGG's knockout of Matthew Macklin on YouTube.
But Canelo's ascent and the early signs of Golovkin's "decline" come with caveats.
Then, there's the fight against Brook before that, which a lot of critics are also using against "Triple G".
And there was a big question mark over Golovkin against Daniel Jacobs last time. Look, anything can happen in this fight. Meanwhile, Canelo relishes proactive, iron chinned types, like Golovkin, as we saw when he destroyed Arturo Angulo - knocked out with an uppercut. Maybe inside, maybe right now I'm younger than Canelo. Canelo and Billy Joe could use their feet and fight off the back-foot to make life hard for me. He works behind his jab better than anyone else.
But he faces a tough opponent in Alvarez, who won the WBC title in 2015 and has not lost a fight since going down to a majority points decision against Floyd Mayweather in 2013. During the mid to late rounds we could expect some wars on the ropes, as GGG is most effective when his opponents are trapped against the ring and Canelo most risky when he's there. On Saturday, four years after fighting Mayweather, he's slated for another significant fight when he takes on unified middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin at the sold-out T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (HBO PPV, 8 p.m. ET). He's in a great mood, I don't know if it is because the baby is here or that he finally has got the fight he has wanted.