Signs In The Sand: What Qatar Tells Us About MotoGP In 2011

by Barry Russell

What we saw in pre-season testing and practice for the first round of the MotoGP World Championship did not fill me with excitement for the new season. Casey Stoner was so at home on the Honda from the moment he swung a leg over it and the bike has hit the top of the development cycle just in time for the last year of the 800s that the season seemed finished before it started.

As soon as the red lights went out, however, things got real. Reigning champion Jorge Lorenzo rode brilliantly to spoil the Honda party, finishing in second place as the only non-Honda rider in the top five and four places in front of his team mate, who until then had shown him no respect from the other side of the factory Yamaha pit wall. Valentino Rossi lost his battle for sixth place with Ben Spies, but in doing so, showed that his competitive spirit continues to burn fiercely, despite his persistent shoulder injury and the early struggle he is involved in with the chronically underdeveloped Ducati.

Taking what we saw in Qatar, here is how the season could work out over the remaining 17 races, taking them in finishing order.

Casey Stoner is so naturally fast and so happy with the Honda that he will stay in contention for the championship throughout 2011. Having ruled himself out of the running in 2010 by pushing the Ducati too hard and crashing too often, he will not experience the same levels of self-destructive frustration and should win his second world championship.

Jorge Lorenzo’s pace and self belief will keep him in contention for the title too. Rossi’s development of the M1 has given him the best handling bike on the grid and it should not be beyond Yamaha to find a bit more torque to launch the bike out of corners and some more top-end speed to bring it closer to the Honda.

The aggression shown by the often criticized Dani Pedrosa was good to see at Qatar and it was a shame that an arm injury caused him to fade in the second half of the race. Pedrosa has compensated well for his fragile physique to stay at the top of motorcycle racing, but ultimately it could be what keeps the MotoGP title just out of his reach.

Let’s put Andrea Dovisioso and Marco Simoncelli - on what we can call the third and fourth factory Hondas - together next, because they look like they’ll be hard to separate this season: on the track at any rate. They could each win a race when the ‘aliens’ have an off-day and will more usually be found battling for supremacy in the top five.

Ben Spies got a poor start at Qatar, but his cool head, natural speed and a little more grunt from the Yamaha engine will see him on the top step of the podium at least once in 2011 and a frequent champagne sprayer where religious sensibilities permit.

Valentino Rossi’s season is the most difficult to predict, but here goes. By mid season his development skills and the genius of Ducati chief engineer Felipe Preziosi should bring him back to the podium and include two race wins. This assumes that his persistent shoulder injury recovers, because if it doesn’t we may have to deal with the post-Rossi MotoGP era earlier than expected.

Colin Edwards had a good race in Qatar and will occasionally appear in the top six, particularly later in the season when his contract comes up for renewal. Although he is a fast rider and engaging character, Yamaha and Dorna must surely take the view soon that satellite teams are primarily for up and coming riders and hand him a return ticket to World Superbikes.

Nicky Hayden is another popular American that needs to step up to stay in the top echelon of motorcycle sport. His best hope of survival lies with his teammate’s development abilities, which could pull him into the top six.

Hiroshi Aoyama looked good all weekend on the San Carlo Honda Gresini and it looks like the 2009 250cc World Champion has put the nasty back injury that blighted his rookie MotoGP season behind him and is pushing to move his career forward. As the lone Japanese rider in the class, there is a lot of weight on his shoulders and it is hoped that some of the factory treatment being enjoyed by his teammate will cross the garage floor and enable him to achieve frequent appearances in the top six

Hector Barbera’s occasional bursts of speed will see him on the edge of the top ten but will not be enough to keep him in MotoGP as the tide of talent coming through Moto2 leaves him on the beach.

Cal Crutchlow showed grit in the face of a horrible finger injury and impressed everyone at Qatar. He also showed that he is not overawed at the top level and should score some good top ten finishes to justify his place in the Tech3 Yamaha team.

Karel Abraham was over-promoted and has come too early to MotoGP, which may ultimately compromise his career. Assuming Toni Elias can get his rear grip issues sorted it will be the likeable young Czech who brings up the rear for the rest of the season.

It is good to see MotoGP ‘s elder statesman, Loris Capirossi, back on a Ducati, but the Pramac team suffered a miserable race and are likely to struggle with the bike’s set-up all season. The Italian must surely leave through the same door as Colin Edwards at the end of the year and make room for a younger rider.

Randy de Puniet and reigning Moto2 champion Toni Elias are riders who bring drama to race days when they are on song, but both need to display their best form in 2011 to remain in MotoGP.

Finally, everyone in the sport was sorry to see Alvaro Bautista miss the opening race through injury. He is a talented rider with a superb attitude who deserves the right kind of break, because his fortunes are currently tied to those of Suzuki. Dorna must be desperate to keep a third Japanese marque in MotoGP after losing Kawasaki, but running one rider is not going to give an underfunded team with an uncompetitive bike any real chance to catch up and mount a serious challenge.

The race in Qatar exceeded expectations after a long closed season and leaves us looking forward to Jerez, where up to 250,000 bike-mad spectators will add the noise, colour and atmosphere that was absent at the logistically and technically excellent Emirates venue.

You can find the full MotoGP results here and a full race report here.